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that one great idea.and a stock picker digs for profits in the mining and technology sectors a look at what's he's buying plus viewer mail it's all ahead on today's edition of first business. friday, september 10, 2010 you're watching first business: financial news, analysis and today's investment ideas. good morning and thanks for watching it is friday september 10, 2010. we still have a slow week on wall street but traders are expecting the volume to pick up any day. some actually say we could see a positive two months for september and october. which typically tend to be the two most bearish months. it has been a nice short trading week we are already at friday. there is positive news credit- card debt. it is down about 1.8% again in the last reading. it looks like we are not still building up our credit card debt as much as we used to. that is good news there. we also have gains in the grain market. that's take a look at etf dba,
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it is agricultural etf and it is at one-year highs. politics and money are likely to dominate the internet and airwaves.president obama plans to hold a news conference later today to detail economic proposals he laid out earlier this week.among the president's plans to keep the economy growing-- and spur job growth-- he wants to allow businesses to write off 100% of their investments in equipment and plants through 2011, expand and make permanent a research and development tax credit, plus, pump $50 billion into updating roads, rails and runways.all the while control of congress is up for grabs. and with the mid term elections coming up in november the president needs to win the approval of voters as well as lawmakers. this saturday marks the 9 year anniversary of the september 11th terrorist attacks adolfo laurenti deputy chief economist at mesirow financial was at a conference in the world trade center towers on that day, 9 years ago.he says we've learned
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a lot about how tough our economy really is the terrorist attacks happened just as the 2001 recession was ending and the crisis did *not have a long lasting impact on the economy."they taught a lesson about the resilience of the us economy despite the huge hit on confidence, it did not drag the economy down and the recovery in 02 was slow with job creation, but sepedy with other economic indicators"looking back it's been a very tumultuous *decade for the economy and financial markets in which we *also saw the dot-com crash, the 2001 recession, the wars in afghanistan and iraq the housing bubble which caused the financial crisis followed by the great recession.and through it all, laurenti says the collapse in confidence has always managed to
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recover."overall, the message is despite all the shocks, this economy did pretty well it's a testimonial of strenght in fundamentals, flexibility of our workforce, ingenuity, entreprenuership of people.. that is a positive take away from the past 10 years." on the negative side, adolfo laurenti says the boom and bust cycles keep repeating with the booms driven by cheap money.he says he's worried that we'll see another boom and bust cycle because of the federal reserve's zero interest rate policy. let's head over to the trading floor and join charlie nedoss / olympus futures. we have seen some gains in stocks over the past couple of days does that say anything about optimism coming back or is it too early? we are holding on to good technical levels and a couple weeks ago we tested the 1040 level and that area held. you
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have been steadily grinding higher here. yesterday's price action was pretty interesting in the sense that you put in most of your range on the day in the first hour and prior to the market opening up and really the impetus for the strength there was positive weekly employment numbers and a positive trade deficit number. i think the volume lacked however. you did get up and spend most of the day between the 100 and 200 day moving average. it would be nice to see a follow-through here today and see us close the week out on the highs. but volume is lacking i guess the most positive thing i can say is that we are in a positive season moving into the jewish holidays. this has led to the light volume. the old saying is you by rosh hashana and sell yon kipor. when do you see volume coming back? i would like to see it coming back in the next few weeks investors and people are coming back from the end of the summertime and starting to look at markets and starting to move forward. let's see what happens
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in the month of september. this is generally a very poor month for the market. but moving into october the most positive season you have buying in october and selling at the end of april. i would like to see this market move higher on high- volume and see that volume start to feed on each other as we move further in the month. with september and october traditionally being bearish months that may not pan out this time around. yes it might not the market has been down through the summer. we tested some big areas. thursday's close was positive in the sense that you closed up towards the highs and you did close over the 100 day moving average. i would like to see us be able to get enough strength here on some higher volume which would which would show more conviction here and see this market consolidate back above the 200 day moving average. that would be the most positive situation we can see. thank you for joining us charlie nedoss / olympus futures.
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more americans are attempting to find that "hot product" or " great idea" that could turn into a money maker.applications for trademarks and patents are up 4% compared to a year ago. we stopped by a workshop where inventors are getting tips on how to create profitable products.angie innovation "we lost our pet lucy a beagle and it was very emotional as any pet owner knows it's like losing a family member. "to cope, willet turned lucy's collar into a wearable keepsake."the collar i created two bracelets one for my wife and one for myself. and it even still had some of her hair in it and it was comforting to have that.with plans to expand his fledgling company and plenty of questions about how to make his product profitable willett picked up tips at a score workshop aimed at innovators. i have been using this phrase entreprenuer paranoia i have that. i think a lot of people have that, you are
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afraid to talk to certain people about it, because they might steal it. he's right. one entrepreneur was so nervous about her idea-- she wouldn't even tell us what it is.score counselor and entrepreneur richard kerndt advises that not all products are patentable. but if it is it's better to get the patent process rolling earlier rather than later.. and he says it pays to document everything even those doodles on a note pad and date it. the next step is to perfect the pitch."in order to sell you have to succinctly tell someone why they should buy your product and how it's going to benefit them." then he says create a website to make the company look legit.even though it's fairly inexpensive and fairly easy to get a website up and operating of just a few pages 44:36(or start here) even just a page or two tells a customer you are more legitamit than someone who isn't.and when starting up score advisors say to turn to friends
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and family for financing. there are some loans available now. but in starting your own business the best thing you can do is have some money on your own. " one other word of caution no matter how terrific the idea the pro's say be patient it make take longer than you think getting your product to market still to come crony capitalism and the best way to save your house those issues come into focus in today's viewer mail later on.but first a stock picker looks for new investing ideas in the technology and gold mining sectors what he's watching next.
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woman: so here are the keys. congratulations! it's officially yours. i'm sure you'll have many happy years here. except for you. because you'll be gone three years from now. struck down by the same disease that got your father. so you won't be around for them. and sadly, it could have been detected early
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with a simple test. but you didn't have it. ok! who wan to check out the back yard? announcer: for a list of tests every man should have, go to trs. >> it lives in firewood. >> when you move firewood, you spread the beetle. >> learn more at >> and promise you time for some new stock picks from one of our regular money managers michael morcos / old second wealth management. let's go over your previous picks. which one of these are you still holding onto? we still hold all three. i know johnson and johnson is a favorite of yours are you adding to your positions? we continue to add to johnson and johnson anything
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under $60 is awfully attractive to us. 11 or 12 times earnings great company with a 4% dividend yield almost and we continued to add to it. let's go over your new stock picks. i was surprised to see microsoft around $24 because it is in yearly lows and hasn't really moved in the past decade so why invest in it? it has actually moved down in the last decade but the stock is trading at 11 times multiples and we are in the midst of a pc upgrade cycle that is driven by window 7. you seen in the numbers not only for microsoft but also dell and intel. microsoft makes a lot of money from software so they have the best balance sheet of any company in the world with some of the smartest management and trading at below market
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multiple. it seems like a very good defensive play to us. what about the competition between microsoft and google especially in the search engine space? do you think that can hurt microsoft? google is definitely the leader in search but that is not were microsoft makes its money and microsoft makes people ignore it and think it's not a player in clout computing and it really is a big player and clout computing so i do not think google will be a major threat to microsoft's software business which is really where microsoft makes its money. microsoft is a great stock to trade but do you see it going above $30? when microsoft will turn is hard to say. when do you think it will turn? it will turn at some point in time and i do not think there is any better company with a better evaluation than microsoft today. when it will turn is hard to say but when it does we think it's worth somewhere up to $40 a share. when it does the market is definitely momentum driven and
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it will drive it higher. right now they are ignoring it because they like apple and google and other names better. let's take a look at your new stock pick. it is newmont and mining around $60. this stock is at five-year highs. why would you wanna get in at these levels? newmont is the beneficiary of higher gold prices and quantitative easing and easy money basically. people continue to ignore the gold market it has been a bull market for nine years. do you think that will continue? yes we do think it will continue. people for some reason do not like gold but i think at some point in time it will look like tech in the late nineties there will be a crazy phase and a blow up phase but we are a long way from that yet. quantitative easing and high gold prices are good for newmont. they have a strong cash flow and one of the best management teams in the mining business. if we do see a big drop in gold that will
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definitely take down these gold miners. definitely will. some traders say that stocks are going to be staying in a range in the s&p 500 for several months. do you agree with this? several months is short term and we are not the best at short-term timing. it seems like the market is between 1020 and 1150 on the s&p thereabouts. we will see with the new elections it may be a catalyst to drive it higher or lower. we will see which way it goes. as far as the best strategy it seems like the best one would be to just pick high quality dividend paying stocks that are pretty stable for now. i think that has been a good strategy all year. i also think it will continue to be a good strategy because we have had a lot of damage to the economy and to the market and it will take time to repair. the good news is quality companies who are high dividend payers are cheap so i think that's a good strategy short- term and long-term. thank you for joining us michael morcos / old second wealth management
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online items after the show be sure to check us out online at for tips on how to talk to your teenager about money matters .plus a closer look at for-profit colleges are they more harmful than helpful to students?.and meet one restaurant owner who managed to keep his business open despite the recession. and straight ahead on the show why one of our regular guests would make a better treasury secretary than tim geithner one viewer explains next
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still ahead why one of our regular guests would make a better treasury secretary than tim geithner one viewer explains next we are joined now by paul eggers for some more controversial viewer mail segment. let's get to our first e-mail from billy bob. billy bob is talking about an interview we did with rebel cole of depaul university. he was giving advice to struggling homeowners who could not get loan modifications and in some cases it was because they were paying second mortgages with second liens. here's a clip from that interview. you can see here the four largest banks own $426 billion worth of second liens. they obviously do not want to take a hit on the second mortgages. rebel cole
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says regulators won't force banks to take a hit on the second mortgages because that would hurt there capital positions and if that happened that would require another bailout. so let's go over rebels advice once again. stop paying the first and second mortgage if you want a loan modification but in that event there is no guarantee that you'll actually get one. you can find a link to that interview on our web site. certainly rebel is one of our finest sources and he is a very strong critic of secretary tim geitner. moving on to a e-mail
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from c foster christiansen. he are some numbers looking at how the top 10 banks have lobbied and how much money they have spent on lobbying in the first half of the year. these point to our viewers point. it is amazing how the american people continue to re-elect the congressmen that take all this lobbying money year after year. we have the midterm elections coming up in november, will see how the landscape changes then. keep your comments come and give us a call.
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and still to come on the show,andrew keene talks about what he sees in the charts for the s&p 500 right after this break.
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trs. >> it lives in firewood. >> when you move firewood, you spread the beetle. >> learn more at >> and promise you won't move firewood.
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we are now joined by andrew keene/independent trader. what do you think about the s&p 500
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these days? i'm trying to play the s&p 500 from the long side but i think there's more room to the downside than the upside. we are in a bullish market right now and we have been for the last two weeks. we rallied a little bit yesterday and we rallied this week and we rallied last week. it doesn't seem like we can go through these numbers we have a hundred day moving average of 1107 and the 200 day moving average around 1115 or 1117 and then we have the highest since may at 1125. so our numbers economically have been good and so have jobless claims and the beige book was good as well. however we are now pushing to the next level that i think we need to. i want to try to get a long about i want to get a long above the hundred day moving average also above the 200 day average. until we see that we may be in this trading range of about 1040 to 1120. i think we our capped on the upside unless
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we can get through these numbers but if we can't get through these numbers i think we will go to 1140 or 1150. what is the volatility index telling you about this market? the volatility index was the lowest last friday a week ago from today. the volatility index was almost under 20 at 2080 or 2081 it has spiked a little bit back from them. allot of the things that the volatility index is kind of hard to determine is because people may not have rolled their dates forward in the option setting so it looked like volatility was actually getting cheaper when the three day weekend was not factored into it so volatility is around 22 1/2 right around the 200 day moving average. i look at the vicks to see where the market is going to go. the vicks was down today and has been down for the most part. if the vicks is gonna go under 20 it has to get beyond this 200 day moving average. thank you very much for joining us andrew keene/independent trader. and that's all for today's show. thanks so much for watching. have a great weekend and we'll see you back here on monday. see you back here on monday.
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First Business
FOX September 10, 2010 4:30am-5:00am EDT

News/Business. Insight on the economy and stock market. (CC)

TOPIC FREQUENCY Us 8, S&p 5, Johnson 4, Newmont 3, Andrew Keene 3, Billy Bob 2, Adolfo Laurenti 2, Usa 2, Michael Morcos 2, Trs 2, Obama 1, Christiansen 1, Charlie Nedoss 1, Angie 1, Willet 1, Willett 1, Richard Kerndt 1, Tim Geitner 1, Paul Eggers 1, Afghanistan 1
Network FOX
Duration 00:30:00
Scanned in Annapolis, MD, USA
Source Comcast Cable
Tuner Channel 79 (555 MHz)
Video Codec mpeg2video
Audio Cocec ac3
Pixel width 704
Pixel height 480
Sponsor Internet Archive
Audio/Visual sound, color

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on 6/12/2012